Revealing the hidden signature of fault slip history in the morphology of degrading scarps

Abstract

AbstractActive faults accommodate tectonic plate motion through different slip modes, some stable and aseismic, others characterized by the occurrence of large earthquakes after long periods of inactivity. Although the slip mode estimation is of primary importance to improve seismic hazard assessment, this parameter inferred today from geodetic observations needs to be better constrained over many seismic cycles. From an analytical formulation developed for analyzing fault scarp formation and degradation in loosely consolidated material, we show that the final topographic shape generated by one earthquake rupture or by creep (i.e., continuous slip) deviates by as much as 10–20%, despite a similar cumulated slip and a constant diffusion coefficient. This result opens up the theoretical possibility of inverting, not only the cumulated slip or averaged slip rate, but also the number of earthquakes and their sizes from scarp morphologies. This approach is all the more relevant as the number of rupture events is limited. Estimating the fault slip history beyond a dozen earthquakes becomes very difficult as the effect of erosion on scarp morphology prevails. Our modeling also highlights the importance of trade-offs between fault slip history and diffusive processes. An identical topographic profile can be obtained either with a stable fault creep associated with rapid erosion, or a single earthquake rupture followed by slow erosion. These inferences, derived from the simplest possible diffusion model, are likely to be even more pronounced in nature.