Future projection of climate extremes across contiguous northeast India and Bangladesh

Abstract

AbstractIn recent times, India has experienced a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly in northeast India (NEI), an area known for its rich natural resources. Despite the geographic continuity of NEI and Bangladesh, previous studies have failed to consider their interconnectedness, resulting in an incomplete understanding of the situation. To bridge this gap, a comprehensive study encompassed the entire NEI, including West Bengal and Bangladesh (hereafter referred to as NEIB). This study examined climate extremes in NEIB, utilizing 12 temperature-based and 8 precipitation-based indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. Analysis was performed on temperature and precipitation data obtained from the India Meteorological Department and Bangladesh Meteorological Department covering the period 1981–2021. Additionally, climate projections from 14 Global Climate Models participating in the CMIP6 were incorporated for the period 2015–2100, considering four different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. Findings revealed that under the SSP585 scenario, a substantial rise of 4 °C in maximum temperatures and 5.5 °C in minimum temperatures by the end of the twenty-first century. Warming indices, such as the summer days index, indicated an expected increase of 53 days, while the Warm spell days index was estimated to rise by approximately 2 days. Heavy precipitation days (R20mm) were projected to increase by up to 14 days, with a notable impact in Meghalaya. While the number of rainy days is expected to decrease, the overall magnitude of precipitation is anticipated to remain relatively stable. Notably, the Simple daily intensity index demonstrated a rise of 2.4 mm/day compared to the current baseline of 14.4 mm/day. These projected changes have significant ramifications for water resources, agriculture, health, and infrastructure in the region.