Author:
Pilla Rachel M.,Williamson Craig E.,Adamovich Boris V.,Adrian Rita,Anneville Orlane,Chandra Sudeep,Colom-Montero William,Devlin Shawn P.,Dix Margaret A.,Dokulil Martin T.,Gaiser Evelyn E.,Girdner Scott F.,Hambright K. David,Hamilton David P.,Havens Karl,Hessen Dag O.,Higgins Scott N.,Huttula Timo H.,Huuskonen Hannu,Isles Peter D. F.,Joehnk Klaus D.,Jones Ian D.,Keller Wendel Bill,Knoll Lesley B.,Korhonen Johanna,Kraemer Benjamin M.,Leavitt Peter R.,Lepori Fabio,Luger Martin S.,Maberly Stephen C.,Melack John M.,Melles Stephanie J.,Müller-Navarra Dörthe C.,Pierson Don C.,Pislegina Helen V.,Plisnier Pierre-Denis,Richardson David C.,Rimmer Alon,Rogora Michela,Rusak James A.,Sadro Steven,Salmaso Nico,Saros Jasmine E.,Saulnier-Talbot Émilie,Schindler Daniel E.,Schmid Martin,Shimaraeva Svetlana V.,Silow Eugene A.,Sitoki Lewis M.,Sommaruga Ruben,Straile Dietmar,Strock Kristin E.,Thiery Wim,Timofeyev Maxim A.,Verburg Piet,Vinebrooke Rolf D.,Weyhenmeyer Gesa A.,Zadereev Egor
Abstract
AbstractGlobally, lake surface water temperatures have warmed rapidly relative to air temperatures, but changes in deepwater temperatures and vertical thermal structure are still largely unknown. We have compiled the most comprehensive data set to date of long-term (1970–2009) summertime vertical temperature profiles in lakes across the world to examine trends and drivers of whole-lake vertical thermal structure. We found significant increases in surface water temperatures across lakes at an average rate of + 0.37 °C decade−1, comparable to changes reported previously for other lakes, and similarly consistent trends of increasing water column stability (+ 0.08 kg m−3 decade−1). In contrast, however, deepwater temperature trends showed little change on average (+ 0.06 °C decade−1), but had high variability across lakes, with trends in individual lakes ranging from − 0.68 °C decade−1 to + 0.65 °C decade−1. The variability in deepwater temperature trends was not explained by trends in either surface water temperatures or thermal stability within lakes, and only 8.4% was explained by lake thermal region or local lake characteristics in a random forest analysis. These findings suggest that external drivers beyond our tested lake characteristics are important in explaining long-term trends in thermal structure, such as local to regional climate patterns or additional external anthropogenic influences.
Funder
National Science Foundation
Belarusian Republican Foundation for Fundamental Research
Leibniz-Institut für Gewässerökologie und Binnenfischerei
European Commission with the MANTEL Project
DFG within the LimnoScenES Project
OLA-IS, AnaEE-France, INRAE of Thonon-les-Bains, CIPEL, SILA, CISALB
Universidad del Valle de Guatemala
Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation
Oklahoma Water Resources Board
Grand River Dam Authority
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
City of Tulsa, Oklahoma
Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment
Natural Environment Research Council
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
Canada Foundation for Innovation
Canada Research Chairs
Province of Saskatchewan
University of Regina
Queen’s University Belfast
California Air Resources Board
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
National Park Service
Ministry of Higher Education and Research
Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Environmental Agency of Verona
Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
Mellon Foundation
University of Washington
Russian Science Foundation
Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation
Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute
Lake Victoria Management Project
Universität Innsbruck
Österreichische Agentur für Internationale Mobilität und Kooperation in Bildung, Wissenschaft und Forschung
IFS
Lake Victoria Fisheries Organization
Waikato Regional Council
Bay of Plenty Regional Council
Swedish Environmental Protection Agency
Swedish Infrastructure for Ecosystem Sciences
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC