Author:
Colchero Fernando,Eckardt Winnie,Stoinski Tara
Abstract
AbstractThe current COVID-19 pandemic has created unmeasurable damages to society at a global level, from the irreplaceable loss of life, to the massive economic losses. In addition, the disease threatens further biodiversity loss. Due to their shared physiology with humans, primates, and particularly great apes, are susceptible to the disease. However, it is still uncertain how their populations would respond in case of infection. Here, we combine stochastic population and epidemiological models to simulate the range of potential effects of COVID-19 on the probability of extinction of mountain gorillas. We find that extinction is sharply driven by increases in the basic reproductive number and that the probability of extinction is greatly exacerbated if the immunity lasts less than 6 months. These results stress the need to limit exposure of the mountain gorilla population, the park personnel and visitors, as well as the potential of vaccination campaigns to extend the immunity duration.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Reference51 articles.
1. Mills, L. S. Conservation of Wildlife Populations: Demography, Genetics, and Management (Wiley-Blackwell, 2012).
2. Caillaud, D. et al. Gorilla susceptibility to Ebola virus: The cost of sociality. Curr. Biol. 16, R489–R491 (2006).
3. Leroy, E. M. Multiple ebola virus transmission events and rapid decline of Central African Wildlife. Science 303, 387–390 (2004).
4. Bermejo, M. et al. Ebola outbreak killed 5000 gorillas. Science 314, 1564–1564 (2006).
5. Daszak, P., Cunningham, A. A. & Hyatt, A. D. Emerging infectious diseases of wildlife-threats to biodiversity and human health. Science 287, 443–449 (2000).
Cited by
2 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献