Future heat waves over the Mediterranean from an Euro-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble

Author:

Molina M. O.,Sánchez E.,Gutiérrez C.

Abstract

AbstractHeat waves are among the most relevant extreme climatic events due to their effects on society, agriculture and environment. The aim of this work is to improve our understanding of heat waves over the Mediterranean basin during the 21st century from an ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). Focus has been placed on sensitivities to forcing global models, emissions scenarios and the RCM resolution, being the first work based on Euro-CORDEX simulations to fully analyze future heat waves in the Mediterranean. Heat wave features are studied with Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI, duration) and Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId, intensity). Results indicate a large increase by the end of the century in both intensity and length of heat waves from all emissions scenarios, global models, and regional models at any resolution. Exceptional heat waves observed early on the century could then become normal by the end of this period. Forcing global models and emissions scenarios play a major role. Clear added value on spatial distribution and heat wave indices are obtained from global to regional models dynamical downscaling, related to the important coastal or orographic aspects widely present over the Mediterranean.

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Cited by 101 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3