Development and validation of a novel risk classification tool for predicting long length of stay in NICU blood transfusion infants

Abstract

AbstractNewborns are as the primary recipients of blood transfusions. There is a possibility of an association between blood transfusion and unfavorable outcomes. Such complications not only imperil the lives of newborns but also cause long hospitalization. Our objective is to explore the predictor variables that may lead to extended hospital stays in neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) patients who have undergone blood transfusions and develop a predictive nomogram. A retrospective review of 539 neonates who underwent blood transfusion was conducted using median and interquartile ranges to describe their length of stay (LOS). Neonates with LOS above the 75th percentile (P75) were categorized as having a long LOS. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression method was employed to screen variables and construct a risk model for long LOS. A multiple logistic regression prediction model was then constructed using the selected variables from the LASSO regression model. The significance of the prediction model was evaluated by calculating the area under the ROC curve (AUC) and assessing the confidence interval around the AUC. The calibration curve is used to further validate the model’s calibration and predictability. The model’s clinical effectiveness was assessed through decision curve analysis. To evaluate the generalizability of the model, fivefold cross-validation was employed. Internal validation of the models was performed using bootstrap validation. Among the 539 infants who received blood transfusions, 398 infants (P75) had a length of stay (LOS) within the normal range of 34 days, according to the interquartile range. However, 141 infants (P75) experienced long LOS beyond the normal range. The predictive model included six variables: gestational age (GA) (< 28 weeks), birth weight (BW) (< 1000 g), type of respiratory support, umbilical venous catheter (UVC), sepsis, and resuscitation frequency. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for the training set was 0.851 (95% CI 0.805–0.891), and for the validation set, it was 0.859 (95% CI 0.789–0.920). Fivefold cross-validation indicates that the model has good generalization ability. The calibration curve demonstrated a strong correlation between the predicted risk and the observed actual risk, indicating good consistency. When the intervention threshold was set at 2%, the decision curve analysis indicated that the model had greater clinical utility. The results of our study have led to the development of a novel nomogram that can assist clinicians in predicting the probability of long hospitalization in blood transfused infants with reasonable accuracy. Our findings indicate that GA (< 28 weeks), BW(< 1000 g), type of respiratory support, UVC, sepsis, and resuscitation frequency are associated with a higher likelihood of extended hospital stays among newborns who have received blood transfusions.