Long-term prediction of $$^{137}$$Cs in Lake Onuma on Mt. Akagi after the Fukushima accident using fractional diffusion model

Author:

Suetomi Eiichi,Hatano Yuko,Fujita Masakiyo,Okada Yukiko,Suzuki Kyuma,Watanabe Shun

Abstract

AbstractThe Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident also contaminates lakes in Japan. Especially in closed lakes, there is a problem of prolonged low-level $$^{137}$$ 137 Cs contamination because the activity concentration of $$^{137}$$ 137 Cs declines sharply immediately after the accident, but then begins to decrease slowly. In this paper, we derived a long-term prediction formula based on the fractional diffusion model (FDM) for the temporal variation in $$^{137}$$ 137 Cs activity concentrations of the water in Lake Onuma on Mt. Akagi, one of the closed lakes, and of pond smelt (Hypomesus nipponensis), a typical fish species inhabiting in the lake. The formula reproduced well the measured $$^{137}$$ 137 Cs activity concentration of the lake water and pond smelt for 5.4 years after the accident. Next, we performed long-term prediction for 10,000 days using this formula and compared it with the prediction results of the two-component decay function model (TDM), which is the most common model. The results suggest that the FDM prediction will lead to a longer period of contamination with low-level $$^{137}$$ 137 Cs than the TDM prediction.

Funder

Takahashi Industrial and Economic Research Foundation

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Cited by 3 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. MODELING OF TEMPORAL AND VERTICAL CHANGES IN 137Cs CONCENTRATION IN LAKE ONUMA;RADIAT PROT DOSIM;2022

2. Generalized diffusion and random search processes;Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment;2022-09-01

3. MODELING OF TEMPORAL AND VERTICAL CHANGES IN 137Cs CONCENTRATION IN LAKE ONUMA;Radiation Protection Dosimetry;2022-09

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