Prediction model for spinal cord injury in spinal tuberculosis patients using multiple machine learning algorithms: a multicentric study

Abstract

AbstractSpinal cord injury (SCI) is a prevalent and serious complication among patients with spinal tuberculosis (STB) that can lead to motor and sensory impairment and potentially paraplegia. This research aims to identify factors associated with SCI in STB patients and to develop a clinically significant predictive model. Clinical data from STB patients at a single hospital were collected and divided into training and validation sets. Univariate analysis was employed to screen clinical indicators in the training set. Multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms were utilized to establish predictive models. Model performance was evaluated and compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve analysis, decision curve analysis (DCA), and precision-recall (PR) curves. The optimal model was determined, and a prospective cohort from two other hospitals served as a testing set to assess its accuracy. Model interpretation and variable importance ranking were conducted using the DALEX R package. The model was deployed on the web by using the Shiny app. Ten clinical characteristics were utilized for the model. The random forest (RF) model emerged as the optimal choice based on the AUC, PRs, calibration curve analysis, and DCA, achieving a test set AUC of 0.816. Additionally, MONO was identified as the primary predictor of SCI in STB patients through variable importance ranking. The RF predictive model provides an efficient and swift approach for predicting SCI in STB patients.