Identifying the long-term survival beneficiary of chemotherapy for stage N1c sigmoid colon cancer

Abstract

AbstractSigmoid colon cancer often has an unsatisfactory prognosis. This study explored the effect of tumor deposits (TDs) on survival, and whether their presence/absence influence individualized treatment. Data of postoperative patients with sigmoid colon cancer were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Overall survival (OS) was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method and prognostic factors were identified using Cox regression analysis and random forest (RF). The nomogram's discrimination performance was evaluated using a concordance index (C-index), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), calibration curves, and decision-curve analysis. The N1c group showed a worse prognosis than the N0 group. For N1c patients, a combination of surgery and chemotherapy prolonged survival, compared to surgery alone; however, the chemotherapy-surgery combination did not affect the OS of patients younger than 70 years, in stage T1–2, and/or of black race. Multivariable analysis and RF presented Age, T stage, and N stage were the most important predictors for OS. The novel nomogram had superiority to the TNM staging system with improved C-index and IDI, as well as good consistency and higher clinical benefit. TDs are associated with poor survival from sigmoid colon cancer, and considering TDs can inform the formulation of individual treatment regimens. The nomogram shows satisfactory prediction ability for OS.