Prediction of tide level based on variable weight combination of LightGBM and CNN-BiGRU model

Abstract

AbstractAccurate tide level prediction is crucial to human activities in coastal areas. Many practical applications show that compared with traditional harmonic analysis, long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent units (GRUs) and other neural networks, along with ensemble learning models, such as light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), can achieve extremely high prediction accuracy in relatively stationary time series. Therefore, this paper proposes a variable weight combination model based on LightGBM and CNN-BiGRU with relevant research. It uses the variable weight combination method to weight and synthesize the prediction results of the two base models so that the combination model has a stronger ability to capture time series features and fits the data well. The experimental results show that in contrast to the base model LightGBM, the RMSE value and MAE value of the combination model are reduced by 43.2% and 44.7%, respectively; in contrast to the base model CNN-BiGRU, the RMSE value and MAE value of the combination model are reduced by 35.3% and 39.1%, respectively. This means that the variable weight combination model can greatly improve the accuracy of tide level prediction. In addition, we use tidal data from different geographical environments to further verify the good universality of the model. This study provides a new idea and method for tide prediction.