Elicitation and aggregation of multimodal estimates improve wisdom of crowd effects on ordering tasks

Abstract

AbstractWe present a wisdom of crowds study where participants are asked to order a small set of images based on the number of dots they contain and then to guess the respective number of dots in each image. We test two input elicitation interfaces—one elicits the two modalities of estimates jointly and the other independently. We show that the latter interface yields higher quality estimates, even though the multimodal estimates tend to be more self-contradictory. The inputs are aggregated via optimization and voting-rule based methods to estimate the true ordering of a larger universal set of images. We demonstrate that the quality of collective estimates from the simpler yet more computationally-efficient voting methods is comparable to that achieved by the more complex optimization model. Lastly, we find that using multiple modalities of estimates from one group yields better collective estimates compared to mixing numerical estimates from one group with the ordinal estimates from a different group.