Author:
Sylvester Janelle M.,Gutiérrez-Zapata Diana María,Pérez-Marulanda Lisset,Vanegas-Cubillos Martha,Bruun Thilde Bech,Mertz Ole,Castro-Nunez Augusto
Abstract
AbstractApproximately 90% of global forest cover changes between 2000 and 2018 were attributable to agricultural expansion, making food production the leading direct driver of deforestation. While previous studies have focused on the interaction between human and environmental systems, limited research has explored deforestation from a food system perspective. This study analyzes the drivers of deforestation in 40 tropical and subtropical countries (2004–2021) through the lenses of consumption/demand, production/supply and trade/distribution using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models. Our models explained a substantial portion of deforestation variability globally (R2 = 0.74) and in Asia (R2 = 0.81) and Latin America (R2 = 0.73). The results indicate that trade- and demand-side dynamics, specifically foreign direct investments and urban population growth, play key roles in influencing deforestation trends at these scales, suggesting that food system-based interventions could be effective in mitigating deforestation. Conversely, the model for Africa showed weaker explanatory power (R2 = 0.30), suggesting that factors beyond the food system may play a larger role in this region. Our findings highlight the importance of targeting trade- and demand-side dynamics to reduce deforestation and how interventions within the food system could synergistically contribute to achieving sustainable development goals, such as climate action, life on land and zero hunger.
Funder
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
CGIAR Agrilac Resiliente Initiative
CGIAR Mitigate+: Research for Low-Emission Food Systems Initiative
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
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