Author:
Berestycki Henri,Desjardins Benoît,Heintz Bruno,Oury Jean-Marc
Abstract
AbstractPlateaus and rebounds of various epidemiological indicators are widely reported in Covid-19 pandemics studies but have not been explained so far. Here, we address this problem and explain the appearance of these patterns. We start with an empirical study of an original dataset obtained from highly precise measurements of SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater over nine months in several treatment plants around the Thau lagoon in France. Among various features, we observe that the concentration displays plateaus at different dates in various locations but at the same level. In order to understand these facts, we introduce a new mathematical model that takes into account the heterogeneity and the natural variability of individual behaviours. Our model shows that the distribution of risky behaviours appears as the key ingredient for understanding the observed temporal patterns of epidemics.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Reference37 articles.
1. Haug, N. et al. Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions. Nat. Hum. Behav. 4, 1303–1312. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-01009-0 (2020).
2. Weitz, J., Park, S., Eksin, C. & Dushoff, J. Awareness-driven behavior changes can shift the shape of epidemics away from peaks and toward plateaus, shoulders, and oscillations. PNAS 117, 32764–32771. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009911117 (2020).
3. Arthur, R. et al. Adaptive social contact rates induce complex dynamics during epidemics. BioRxiv.https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.14.028407 (2020).
4. Radicchi, F. & Bianconi, G. Epidemic plateau in critical susceptible-infected-removed dynamics with nontrivial initial conditions. Phys. Rev. E 102, 052309 (2020).
5. Stroud, P., del Valle, S., Sydoriak, S., Riese, J. & Minszewski, S. Spatial dynamics of pandemic influenza in a massive artificial society. J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul. 10, 9 (2007).
Cited by
5 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献