Observed hydrological changes associated with active tectonic blocks before three consecutive earthquakes in Qinghai, China

Abstract

AbstractIn the past 2 years, three earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 and above occurred consecutively in Qinghai province, China, i.e., the 22 May 2021 Ms7.4 Maduo, 8 January 2022 Ms6.9 Menyuan, and 26 March 2022 Ms6.0 Delingha earthquakes. The hydrological observation instruments set up by the China Earthquake Administration allow us to study the dynamic processes in the well-aquifer systems during the establishment of criticality. Particularly, the observations played an important role in the prediction of the 8 January 2022 Ms6.9 Menyuan earthquake that was approved by the People’s Government of Qinghai province. This work presents the hydrological data recorded by 7 stations to show the short-term anomalies before these earthquakes. To explore the performance of the hydrological observations in detecting earthquakes that occurred on different active tectonic blocks, we calculate the relative amplitudes of the pre-seismic changes. Results indicate that markedly pre-seismic change is found if the observation station and the detection earthquake are on the same block, and moderate change is found if they are on the adjacent blocks, while the precursor is hard to be identified if they are on the separated blocks. The variations in the hydrological responses may be caused by the strength weakening (or dilatancy) of source media. And the increased volumes in the crust can be evidenced by the changes in the geodetic time series in the same neighborhoods and during the same period, augmenting stress loading between the blocks.