Abstract
AbstractClimate change may disrupt species–species interactions via phenological changes in one or both species. To predict and evaluate the influence of climate change on these interactions, long-term monitoring and sampling over large spatial areas are required; however, funding and labor constraints limit data collection. In this study, we predict and evaluate the plant–insect interactions with limited data sets. We examined plant–insect interaction using observational data for development of the crop plant rice (Oryza sativa) and an effective accumulated temperature (EAT) model of two mirid bugs (Stenotus rubrovittatus and Trigonotylus caelestialium). We combined 11 years of records monitoring rice phenology and the predicted phenology of mirid bugs using spatially–explicit EAT models based on both spatially and temporally high resolutions temperature data sets, then evaluated their accuracy using actual pest damage records. Our results showed that the predicted interactions between rice and mirid bugs explained rice damage to some degree. Our approach may apply predicting changes to plant–insect interactions under climate change. As such, combining plant monitoring records and theoretical predictions of insect phenology may be effective for predicting species–species interactions when available data are limited.
Funder
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Reference64 articles.
1. Pachauri, R. K. et al. Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (IPCC, 2014).
2. Thackeray, S. J. et al. Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels. Nature 535, 241–245 (2016).
3. Walther, G.-R. et al. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416, 389–395 (2002).
4. Root, T. L., MacMynowski, D. P., Mastrandrea, M. D. & Schneider, S. H. Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 102, 7465–7469 (2005).
5. Menzel, A. et al. European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Glob. Change Biol. 12, 1969–1976 (2006).
Cited by
5 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献