Author:
Araújo Jorge L. B.,Oliveira Erneson A.,Lima Neto Antonio S.,Andrade José S.,Furtado Vasco
Abstract
AbstractHuman mobility plays a key role in the dissemination of infectious diseases around the world. However, the complexity introduced by commuting patterns in the daily life of cities makes such a role unclear, especially at the intracity scale. Here, we propose a multiplex network fed with 9 months of mobility data with more than 107 million public bus validations in order to understand the relation between urban mobility and the spreading of COVID-19 within a large city, namely, Fortaleza in the northeast of Brazil. Our results suggest that the shortest bus rides in Fortaleza, measured in the number of daily rides among all neighborhoods, decreased$$\approx 25$$≈25% more than the longest ones after an epidemic wave. Such a result is the opposite of what has been observed at the intercity scale. We also find that mobility changes among the neighborhoods are synchronous and geographically homogeneous. Furthermore, we find that the most central neighborhoods in mobility are the first targets for infectious disease outbreaks, which is quantified here in terms of the positive linear relation between the disease arrival time and the average of the closeness centrality ranking. These central neighborhoods are also the top neighborhoods in the number of reported cases at the end of an epidemic wave as indicated by the exponential decay behavior of the disease arrival time in relation to the number of accumulated reported cases with decay constant$$\lambda \approx 33$$λ≈33days. We believe that these results can help in the development of new strategies to impose restriction measures in the cities guiding decision-makers with smart actions in public health policies, as well as supporting future research on urban mobility and epidemiology.
Funder
Fundação Cearense de Apoio ao Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - FUNCAP
Edson Queiroz Foundation
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
National Institute of Science and Technology for Complex Systems in Brazil
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Cited by
6 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献