Hydrological time series prediction based on IWOA-ALSTM

Abstract

AbstractThe prediction of hydrological time series is of great significance for developing flood and drought prevention approaches and is an important component in research on smart water resources. The nonlinear characteristics of hydrological time series are important factors affecting the accuracy of predictions. To enhance the prediction of the nonlinear component in hydrological time series, we employed an improved whale optimisation algorithm (IWOA) to optimise an attention-based long short-term memory (ALSTM) network. The proposed model is termed IWOA-ALSTM. Specifically, we introduced an attention mechanism between two LSTM layers, enabling adaptive focus on distinct features within each time unit to gather information pertaining to a hydrological time series. Furthermore, given the critical impact of the model hyperparameter configuration on the prediction accuracy and operational efficiency, the proposed improved whale optimisation algorithm facilitates the discovery of optimal hyperparameters for the ALSTM model. In this work, we used nonlinear water level information obtained from Hankou station as experimental data. The results of this model were compared with those of genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimisation algorithms and whale optimisation algorithms. The experiments were conducted using five evaluation metrics, namely, the RMSE, MAE, NSE, SI and DR. The results show that the IWOA is effective at optimising the ALSTM and significantly improves the prediction accuracy of nonlinear hydrological time series.