Author:
Narang Udit,Juneja Kushal,Upadhyaya Pankaj,Salunke Popat,Chakraborty Tanmoy,Behera Swadhin Kumar,Mishra Saroj Kanta,Suresh Akhil Dev
Abstract
AbstractInaccuracy in the All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) forecast has major repercussions for India's economy and people's daily lives. Improving the accuracy of AISMR forecasts remains a challenge. An attempt is made here to address this problem by taking advantage of recent advances in machine learning techniques. The data-driven models trained with historical AISMR data, the Niño3.4 index, and categorical Indian Ocean Dipole values outperform the traditional physical models, and the best-performing model predicts that the 2023 AISMR will be roughly 790 mm, which is typical of a normal monsoon year.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC