Iran to achieve the SDG 3.4 at national and sub-national levels

Abstract

AbstractThe present study investigates different scenarios to project the chance of achieving SDG 3.4 in Iran. In this study, the Iranian Death Registry System data was employed to estimate the Unconditional Probability of Dying (UPoD) for the four major categories of NCDs; then, the Bayesian model averaging was used to project the UPoD at the national and sub-national levels. Also, the prevalence of the risk factors was projected by 2030 based on STEPs as well as some other study data. Plus, UPoD and the possibility of achieving the target were estimated once again based on the assumption that the global reduction in risk factors proposed by WHO would be adopted in Iran. The UPoDs for the four NCDs in Iran were 17.5% (95% UI: 16.3–19.2) and 14.7% (13.3–16.2) in 2010 and 2015 respectively and if the current trend continues, 2030 will mark the UPoD of 10.8% (7.9–14.3). However, If the risk factors are reduced to the WHO target level by 2030, the UPoDs will be reduced to 5.44% (3.51–7.39) and 6.55% (5.00–8.13) of the 2010 and 2015 baseline scenarios, respectively, to enable some provinces to meet SDG 3.4. If the current trend continues, Iran will and will not achieve the SDG 3.4 in 2010 and 2015 baseline scenarios, respectively. However, if the global target set for reducing risk factors is achieved, Iran will meet all expectations in SDG 3.4 except in Asthma and COPD. Therefore, effective interventions are recommended to be designed and followed to reduce Asthma and COPD.