Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of MAFLD in the young population

Abstract

AbstractThis study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram model that includes clinical and laboratory indicators to predict the risk of metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) in young Chinese individuals. This study retrospectively analyzed a cohort of young population who underwent health examination from November 2018 to December 2021 at The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University in Luzhou City, Sichuan Province, China. We extracted the clinical and laboratory data of 43,040 subjects and randomized participants into the training and validation groups (7:3). Univariate logistic regression analysis, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, and multivariate logistic regression models identified significant variables independently associated with MAFLD. The predictive accuracy of the model was analyzed in the training and validation sets using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. In this study, we identified nine predictors from 31 variables, including age, gender, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, alanine aminotransferase, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, uric acid, and smoking. The AUROC for the subjects in the training and validation groups was 0.874 and 0.875, respectively. The calibration curves show excellent accuracy of the nomogram. This nomogram which was based on demographic characteristics, lifestyle habits, anthropometrics, and laboratory data can visually and individually predict the risk of developing MAFLD. This nomogram is a quick and effective screening tool for assessing the risk of MAFLD in younger populations and identifying individuals at high risk of MAFLD, thereby contributing to the improvement of MAFLD management.