Venice as a paradigm of coastal flooding under multiple compound drivers

Abstract

AbstractFull comprehension of the dynamics of hazardous sea levels is indispensable for assessing and managing coastal flood risk, especially under a changing climate. The 12 November 2019 devastating flood in the historical city of Venice (Italy) stimulated new investigations of the coastal flooding problem from different perspectives and timescales. Here Venice is used as a paradigm for coastal flood risk, due to the complexity of its flood dynamics facing those of many other locations worldwide. Spectral decomposition was applied to the long-term 1872–2019 sea-level time series in order to investigate the relative importance of different drivers of coastal flooding and their temporal changes. Moreover, a multivariate analysis via copulas provided statistical models indispensable for correctly understanding and reproducing the interactions between the variables at play. While storm surges are the main drivers of the most extreme events, tides and long-term forcings associated with planetary atmospheric waves and seasonal to inter-annual oscillations are predominant in determining recurrent nuisance flooding. The non-stationary analysis revealed a positive trend in the intensity of the non-tidal contribution to extreme sea levels in the last three decades, which, along with relative sea-level rise, contributed to an increase in the frequency of floods in Venice.