Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting post-operative pulmonary infection in gastric cancer patients following radical gastrectomy

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this retrospective study was to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the risk of post-operative pulmonary infection (POI) in gastric cancer (GC) patients following radical gastrectomy. 2469 GC patients who underwent radical gastrectomy were enrolled, and randomly divided into the development and validation groups. The nomogram was constructed based on prognostic factors using logistic regression analysis, and was internally and crossly validated by bootstrap resampling and the validation dataset, respectively. Concordance index (C-index) value and calibration curve were used for estimating the predictive accuracy and discriminatory capability. Sixty-five (2.63%) patients developed POI within 30 days following surgery, with higher rates of requiring intensive care and longer post-operative hospital stays. The nomogram showed that open operation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), intra-operative blood transfusion, tumor located at upper and/or middle third and longer operation time (≥4 h) in a descending order were significant contributors to POI risk. The C-index value for the model was 0.756 (95% CI: 0.675−0.837), and calibration curves showed good agreement between nomogram predictions and actual observations. In conclusion, a nomogram based on these factors could accurately and simply provide a picture tool to predict the incidence of POI in GC patients undergoing radical gastrectomy.