Study on the spatial-temporal variation in evapotranspiration in China from 1948 to 2018

Abstract

AbstractIt is of great significance for the efficient utilization of water resources and the construction of the ecological environment in China to fully understand the evolution process of the spatial-temporal pattern of evapotranspiration (ET). With the use of the v2.0 and v2.1 ET data sets combined with the Global Land Data Assimilation System and Noah model, this paper selects pixels as the basic research object to analyse the spatial-temporal variation in ET in China during the 71 years from 1948 to 2018. We first applied the TFPW-MK test to study the annual ET trend in China throughout the 71-year period, including the ET trend of each month from January to December and the annual total ET trend. Moreover, we examined the spatial variation in these trends. In addition, we calculated the variation coefficient of the time series of each pixel’s ET throughout the 71-year period and the variation coefficient of the spatial distribution of ET in each year to analyse the spatial-temporal fluctuations in ET in the study area. Finally, the Hurst index was adopted to evaluate the future ET trend. Based on these analyses, we observed the following novel spatial-temporal characteristics of ET: from 1948 to 2018, (1) the ET in most regions covered by 89.5% of all pixels in China exhibits an increasing trend. (2) The ET trend in China varies greatly with the change in months, and many regions show the most or least obvious increasing trend (or decreasing trend) at different times. (3) The area with an increasing trend is the largest in May and the smallest in December, and more than half of the pixels in all months of a year reveal an increasing trend. (4) In the northeast, west and south regions of China, the monthly fluctuation in the ET trend is relatively large, which indicates that the ET trend in these regions is greatly affected by the month. (5) The fluctuation in ET in China is larger in the north than it is in the south and larger in the west than it is in the east. The most stable fluctuation occurs in East China. (6) The ET trend of almost all the pixels in the study area remains consistent from 1948 to 2018, and there are large areas with a notable continuity. This results in the spatial variation in ET in the study area increasing.