Suppressing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic using controlled testing and isolation

Author:

Cohen Kobi,Leshem Amir

Abstract

AbstractThe Corona virus disease has significantly affected lives of people around the world. Existing quarantine policies led to large-scale lock-downs because of the slow tracking of the infection paths, and indeed we see new waves of the disease. This can be solved by contact tracing combined with efficient testing policies. Since the number of daily tests is limited, it is crucial to exploit them efficiently to improve the outcome of contact tracing (technological or human-based epidemiological investigations). We develop a controlled testing framework to achieve this goal. The key is to test individuals with high probability of being infected to identify them before symptoms appear. These probabilities are updated based on contact tracing and test results. We demonstrate that the proposed method could reduce the quarantine and morbidity rates compared to existing methods by up to a 50%. The results clearly demonstrate the necessity of accelerating the epidemiological investigations by using technological contact tracing. Furthermore, proper use of the testing capacity using the proposed controlled testing methodology leads to significantly improved results under both small and large testing capacities. We also show that for small new outbreaks controlled testing can prevent the large spread of new waves. Author contributions statement: The authors contributed equally to this work, including conceptualization, analysis, methodology, software, and drafting the work.

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference49 articles.

1. Rodriguez-Morales, A. J. et al. COVID-19, an emerging coronavirus infection: current scenario and recent developments—an overview. J. Pure Appl. Microbiol. 14, 6150 (2020).

2. Anderson, R. M. et al. Epidemiology, transmission dynamics and control of SARS: the 2002–2003 epidemic. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B Biol. Sci. 359, 1091 (2004).

3. Anderson, R. M., Heesterbeek, H., Klinkenberg, D. & Hollingsworth, T. D. How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?. The Lancet 395, 931 (2020).

4. World Health Organization. Considerations for quarantine of individuals in the context of containment for coronavirus disease (COVID-19): interim guidance, 19 March 2020. Tech. rep., World Health Organization (2020).

5. Salathé, M. et al. COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland: on the importance of testing, contact tracing and isolation. Swiss Med. Wkly. 150, w20225 (2020).

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3