Utilizing direct and indirect information to improve the COVID-19 vaccination booster scheduling

Author:

Dery Yotam,Yechezkel Matan,Ben-Gal Irad,Yamin Dan

Abstract

AbstractCurrent global COVID-19 booster scheduling strategies mainly focus on vaccinating high-risk populations at predetermined intervals. However, these strategies overlook key data: the direct insights into individual immunity levels from active serological testing and the indirect information available either through sample-based sero-surveillance, or vital demographic, location, and epidemiological factors. Our research, employing an age-, risk-, and region-structured mathematical model of disease transmission—based on COVID-19 incidence and vaccination data from Israel between 15 May 2020 and 25 October 2021—reveals that a more comprehensive strategy integrating these elements can significantly reduce COVID-19 hospitalizations without increasing existing booster coverage. Notably, the effective use of indirect information alone can considerably decrease COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, without the need for additional vaccine doses. This approach may also be applicable in optimizing vaccination strategies for other infectious diseases, including influenza.

Funder

HORIZON EUROPE European Research Council

Koret Foundation

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Reference44 articles.

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