Trends and age-period-cohort effect on incidence of hepatitis B from 2008 to 2022 in Guangzhou, China

Abstract

AbstractHepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is highly prevalent in Guangzhou, China. This study aimed to examine the long-term trend of HB incidence from 2008 to 2022 and the independent impacts of age, period, and cohort on the trends. HBV data were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. Joinpoint regression was utilized to examine temporal trends, and an age-period-cohort model was employed to estimate the effects of age, period, and cohort. A total of 327,585 HBV cases were included in this study. The incidence of chronic and acute HB showed a decreasing trend in Guangzhou over the past 15 years, with an average annual percent change of − 4.31% and − 16.87%, respectively. Age, period, and cohort all exerted significant effects. The incidence of HB was higher in males than in females and non-central areas compared to central areas. Age groups of 0–4 years and 15–24 years were identified as high-risk groups. The period relative risks for chronic HB incidence decreased initially and then stabilized. Cohorts born later had lower risks. Chronic HB incidences remain high in Guangzhou, especially among males, younger individuals, and residents of non-central areas. More efforts are still needed to achieve hepatitis elimination targets.