A joinpoint and age–period–cohort analysis of ocular cancer secular trends in Iran from 2004 to 2016

Abstract

AbstractInvestigating secular trends of ocular cancer registration in Iran. After acquiring Iranian national population-based cancer registry data, trends of age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) of ocular cancers and annual percent changes (APC) between 2004 and 2016 were analysed in age groups, gender, topography and morphology types with joinpoint regression analysis. Age, period, and cohort effects on incidence rates were estimated by age–period–cohort model. Geographic distribution of ASIR was assessed using GIS. Overall ASIR of ocular cancers was 16.04/100,000 (95% CI 15.77–16.32). Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant increase of ASIR between 2004 and 2009 for males (APC = 5.5, 95% CI  0.9–10.2), ages over 50 years (APC = 5.2, 1.2–9.4), skin/canthus/adnexal cancers (APC = 4.2, 0.8–7.7), and carcinomas/adenocarcinomas (APC = 4.3, 0.6–8.1); however, between 2009 and 2016 a declining trend was observed in all investigated variables. ASIR of retinoblastoma was significantly increased (averaged APC = 20.7, 9–33.7) between 2004 and 2016. age–period–cohort analyses showed that incidence rates of ocular cancers significantly increased with aging, time periods, and birth cohort effects (p < 0.001). ASIR varied from 6.7/100,000 to 21.7/100,000 in Iran. Excepting retinoblastoma, all ocular cancer incidence trends were downward over a 13-year period; however, it was increasing between 2004 and 2009 cancer. ASIR was significant aging in Iran.