$$\text {DRTOP}$$: deep learning-based radiomics for the time-to-event outcome prediction in lung cancer

Abstract

AbstractHand-crafted radiomics has been used for developing models in order to predict time-to-event clinical outcomes in patients with lung cancer. Hand-crafted features, however, are pre-defined and extracted without taking the desired target into account. Furthermore, accurate segmentation of the tumor is required for development of a reliable predictive model, which may be objective and a time-consuming task. To address these drawbacks, we propose a deep learning-based radiomics model for the time-to-event outcome prediction, referred to as DRTOP that takes raw images as inputs, and calculates the image-based risk of death or recurrence, for each patient. Our experiments on an in-house dataset of 132 lung cancer patients show that the obtained image-based risks are significant predictors of the time-to-event outcomes. Computed Tomography (CT)-based features are predictors of the overall survival (OS), with the hazard ratio (HR) of 1.35, distant control (DC), with HR of 1.06, and local control (LC), with HR of 2.66. The Positron Emission Tomography (PET)-based features are predictors of OS and recurrence free survival (RFS), with hazard ratios of 1.67 and 1.18, respectively. The concordance indices of $$68\%$$68%, $$63\%$$63%, and $$64\%$$64% for predicting the OS, DC, and RFS show that the deep learning-based radiomics model is as accurate or better in predicting predefined clinical outcomes compared to hand-crafted radiomics, with concordance indices of $$51\%$$51%, $$64\%$$64%, and $$47\%$$47%, for predicting the OS, DC, and RFS, respectively. Deep learning-based radiomics has the potential to offer complimentary predictive information in the personalized management of lung cancer patients.