Risk factor analysis and nomogram development and verification for medullary carcinoma of the colon using SEER database

Author:

Yang Lu,Yu Lei,Zhou Qiang,Liu Li,Shen Na,Li Na

Abstract

AbstractMedullary Carcinoma of the Colon (MCC) is a rare histological subtype of colon cancer, and there is currently no recognized optimal treatment plan for it, with its prognosis remaining unclear. The aim of this study is to analyze the independent prognostic factors for MCC patients and develop and validate nomograms to predict overall survival (OS). A total of 760 patients newly diagnosed with MCC from 2004 to 2020 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. All patients were randomly allocated to a training group and a validation group in a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariable Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify prognostic factors and construct nomograms. The nomogram prediction model was evaluated and validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The study found that elderly women are more susceptible to MCC, and the ascending colon and cecum are the most common sites of involvement. MCC is poorly differentiated, with stages II and III being the most common. Surgery is the primary treatment for MCC. The prognosis for patients with stage IV MCC is poor, with a median survival time of only 10 months. Independent prognostic factors for MCC include age, N stage, M stage, surgery, chemotherapy, and tumor size. Among them, age < 75 years and completion of chemotherapy were protective factors for colon medullary carcinoma, while N2 (HR = 2.18, 95%CI 1.40–3.38), M1 (HR = 3.31, 95%CI 2.01–5.46), no surgery (HR = 27.94, 95%CI 3.69–211.75), and tumor diameter > 7 cm (HR = 1.66, 95%CI 1.20–2.30) were risk factors for colon medullary carcinoma. The results of ROC, AUC, calibration curves, and DCA demonstrate that the nomogram prediction model exhibits good predictive performance. We have updated the demographic characteristics of colon medullary carcinoma and identified age, N staging, M staging, surgery, chemotherapy and tumor size as independent prognostic factors for colon medullary carcinoma. Additionally, we have established nomograms for prognostic prediction. These nomograms can provide personalized predictions and serve as valuable references for clinical decision-making.

Funder

Medical Science and Technology Project of Sichuan Provincial Health Commission

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3