Author:
Gómez-Undiano Irene,Musavi Francis,Mushobozi Wilfred L.,David Grace M.,Day Roger,Early Regan,Wilson Kenneth
Abstract
AbstractInvasive species have historically been a problem derived from global trade and transport. To aid in the control and management of these species, species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to help predict possible areas of expansion. Our focal organism, the African Armyworm (AAW), has historically been known as an important pest species in Africa, occurring at high larval densities and causing outbreaks that can cause enormous economic damage to staple crops. The goal of this study is to map the AAW’s present and potential distribution in three future scenarios for the region, and the potential global distribution if the species were to invade other territories, using 40 years of data on more than 700 larval outbreak reports from Kenya and Tanzania. The present distribution in East Africa coincides with its previously known distribution, as well as other areas of grassland and cropland, which are the host plants for this species. The different future climatic scenarios show broadly similar potential distributions in East Africa to the present day. The predicted global distribution shows areas where the AAW has already been reported, but also shows many potential areas in the Americas where, if transported, environmental conditions are suitable for AAW to thrive and where it could become an invasive species.
Funder
Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Reference112 articles.
1. Zeder, M. A. The domestication of animals. J. Anthropol. Res. 68, 161–190 (2012).
2. Zohary, D. & Hopf, M. Domestication of Plants in the Old World: The Origin and Spread of Cultivated Plants in West Asia, Europe and the Nile Valley (Oxford University Press, 2000).
3. Epanchin-Niell, R., McAusland, C., Liebhold, A., Mwebaze, P. & Springborn, M. R. Biological invasions and international trade: Managing a moving target. Rev. Environ. Econom. Policy 15, 180–190 (2021).
4. Gippet, J. M. & Bertelsmeier, C. Invasiveness is linked to greater commercial success in the global pet trade. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 118, e2016337118 (2021).
5. Bertelsmeier, C. Globalization and the anthropogenic spread of invasive social insects. Curr. Opin. Insect Sci. 46, 16–23 (2021).
Cited by
2 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献