Schedule risk model of water intake tunnel construction considering mood factors and its application

Abstract

AbstractThe mood index $$r$$ r was used to describe evaluator attitudes regarding the progress of a project that formed the basis of a construction period prediction model. The degrees of pessimism $$\alpha$$ α and optimism $$\beta$$ β were introduced, and an analysis model was established using $$\alpha$$ α and $$\beta$$ β to predict the construction period and completion probability Firstly, the absolute construction period of each process of tunnel No. 2 can be obtained according to the measured daily average footage of each process of tunnel No. 1. Secondly, the probability of the stoppage caused by different factors can be obtained after the statistical analysis of the factors responsible for the stoppage of tunnel No. 1. Finally, the expected construction period and completion probability of tunnel No. 2 under different pessimism and optimism conditions are obtained by using the progress risk analysis theory of emotional models and the program evaluation and review technique method. An engineering application showed that the expected construction period increased, and the completion probability decreased considerably with increasing pessimism; the opposite trend occurred as optimism increased. During the process of risk management and control, the prediction model can be used to perform precise quantitative analysis of the expected construction period and completion probability, reduce the blindness of construction management, control decisions of complex giant tunnel projects, and provide a more accurate basis for decision makers to judge risks. The findings of this study can be applied to hydraulic tunnels and can provide a reference for traffic tunnels, railway tunnels, and other similar projects.