Structure and dynamics of financial networks by feature ranking method

Abstract

AbstractMuch research has been done on time series of financial market in last two decades using linear and non-linear correlation of the returns of stocks. In this paper, we design a method of network reconstruction for the financial market by using the insights from machine learning tool. To do so, we analyze the time series of financial indices of S&P 500 around some financial crises from 1998 to 2012 by using feature ranking approach where we use the returns of stocks in a certain day to predict the feature ranks of the next day. We use two different feature ranking approaches—Random Forest and Gradient Boosting—to rank the importance of each node for predicting the returns of each other node, which produces the feature ranking matrix. To construct threshold network, we assign a threshold which is equal to mean of the feature ranking matrix. The dynamics of network topology in threshold networks constructed by new approach can identify the financial crises covered by the monitored time series. We observe that the most influential companies during global financial crisis were in the sector of energy and financial services while during European debt crisis, the companies are in the communication services. The Shannon entropy is calculated from the feature ranking which is seen to increase over time before market crash. The rise of entropy implies the influences of stocks to each other are becoming equal, can be used as a precursor of market crash. The technique of feature ranking can be an alternative way to infer more accurate network structure for financial market than existing methods, can be used for the development of the market.