Attentional dynamics of evidence accumulation explain why more numerate people make better decisions under risk

Abstract

AbstractIn decisions under risk, more numerate people are typically more likely to choose the option with the highest expected value (EV) than less numerate ones. Prior research indicates that this finding cannot be explained by differences in the reliance on explicit EV calculation. The current work uses the attentional Drift Diffusion Model as a unified computational framework to formalize three candidate mechanisms of pre-decisional information search and processing—namely, attention allocation, amount of deliberation, and distorted processing of value—which may differ between more and less numerate people and explain differences in decision quality. Computational modeling of an eye-tracking experiment on risky choice demonstrates that numeracy is linked to how people allocate their attention across the options, how much evidence they require before committing to a choice, and also how strongly they distort currently non-attended information during preference formation. Together, especially the latter two mechanisms largely mediate the effect of numeracy on decision quality. Overall, the current work disentangles and quantifies latent aspects of the dynamics of preference formation, explicates how their interplay may give rise to manifest differences in decision quality, and thereby provides a fully formalized, mechanistic explanation for the link between numeracy and decision quality in risky choice.