Predicting mental and psychomotor delay in very pre-term infants using machine learning

Abstract

Abstract Background Very preterm infants are at elevated risk for neurodevelopmental delays. Earlier prediction of delays allows timelier intervention and improved outcomes. Machine learning (ML) was used to predict mental and psychomotor delay at 25 months. Methods We applied RandomForest classifier to data from 1109 very preterm infants recruited over 20 years. ML selected key predictors from 52 perinatal and 16 longitudinal variables (1–22 mo assessments). SHapley Additive exPlanations provided model interpretability. Results Balanced accuracy with perinatal variables was 62%/61% (mental/psychomotor). Top predictors of mental and psychomotor delay overlapped and included: birth year, days in hospital, antenatal MgSO4, days intubated, birth weight, abnormal cranial ultrasound, gestational age, mom’s age and education, and intrauterine growth restriction. Highest balanced accuracy was achieved with 19-month follow-up scores and perinatal variables (72%/73%). Conclusions Combining perinatal and longitudinal data, ML modeling predicted 24 month mental/psychomotor delay in very preterm infants ½ year early, allowing intervention to start that much sooner. Modeling using only perinatal features fell short of clinical application. Birth year’s importance reflected a linear decline in predicting delay as birth year became more recent. Impact Combining perinatal and longitudinal data, ML modeling was able to predict 24 month mental/psychomotor delay in very preterm infants ½ year early (25% of their lives) potentially advancing implementation of intervention services. Although cognitive/verbal and fine/gross motor delays require separate interventions, in very preterm infants there is substantial overlap in the risk factors that can be used to predict these delays. Birth year has an important effect on ML prediction of delay in very preterm infants, with those born more recently (1989–2009) being increasing less likely to be delayed, perhaps reflecting advances in medical practice.