Rapidly declining costs of truck batteries and fuel cells enable large-scale road freight electrification

Abstract

AbstractLow-carbon road freight transport is pivotal in mitigating global warming. Nonetheless, electrifying heavy-duty vehicles poses a tremendous challenge due to high technical requirements and cost competitiveness. Data on future truck costs are scarce and uncertain, complicating assessments of the future role of zero-emission truck (ZET) technologies. Here we derive most likely cost developments for price setting ZET components by meta forecasting from more than 200 original sources. We find that costs are primed to decline much faster than expected, with significant differences between scientific and near-market estimates. Specifically, battery system costs could drop by 64% to 75% and fall below €150 kWh−1 by no later than 2035, whereas fuel cell system costs may exhibit even higher cost reductions but are unlikely to reach €100 kW−1 before the early 2040s. This fast cost decline supports an optimistic view on the ZET market diffusion and has substantial implications for future energy and transport systems.