Abstract
AbstractScenarios have been an important integrating element in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the understanding of possible climate outcomes, impacts and risks, and mitigation futures. Integration supports a consistent, coherent assessment, new insights and the opportunity to address policy-relevant questions that would not be possible otherwise, for example, which impacts are unavoidable, which are reversible, what is a consistent remaining carbon budget to keep temperatures below a level and what would be a consistent route of action to achieve that goal. The AR6 builds on community frameworks that are developed to support a coherent use of scenarios across the assessment, yet their use in the assessment and the related timelines presented coordination challenges. From lessons within each Working Group (WG) assessment and the cross-WG experience, we present insights into the role of scenarios in future assessments, including the enhanced integration of impacts into scenarios, near-term information and community coordination efforts. Recommendations and opportunities are discussed for how scenarios can support strengthened consistency and policy relevance in the next IPCC assessment cycle.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Reference10 articles.
1. IPCC, Meeting Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Expert Meeting on Mitigation, Sustainability and Climate Stabilization Scenarios. (eds Shukla, P. R. J. et al.), IPCC Working Group III Technical Support Unit, Imperial College London, London, The United Kingdom. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/08/IPCC_2017_EMR_Scenarios.pdf (2017).
2. Chen, D. et al. Framing, Context, and Methods. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (eds Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, et al.). (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA) pp. 147–286. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.003 (2021).
3. O’Neill et al. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3461–3482 (2016).
4. Lee, J.-Y. et al. Future Global Climate: Scenario-Based Projections and Near-Term Information. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (eds Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, et al.). (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA) pp. 553–672. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.006 (2021)
5. Rose, S. et al. Climate Reference Periods, Global Warming Levels and Common Climate Dimensions. In Begun, R. A. et al. Point of Departure and Key Concepts. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (eds Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) 121–196 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2022). https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.003.