Abstract
AbstractData from digital disease surveillance tools such as ProMED and HealthMap can complement the field surveillance during ongoing outbreaks. Our aim was to investigate the use of data collected through ProMED and HealthMap in real-time outbreak analysis. We developed a flexible statistical model to quantify spatial heterogeneity in the risk of spread of an outbreak and to forecast short term incidence trends. The model was applied retrospectively to data collected by ProMED and HealthMap during the 2013–2016 West African Ebola epidemic and for comparison, to WHO data. Using ProMED and HealthMap data, the model was able to robustly quantify the risk of disease spread 1–4 weeks in advance and for countries at risk of case importations, quantify where this risk comes from. Our study highlights that ProMED and HealthMap data could be used in real-time to quantify the spatial heterogeneity in risk of spread of an outbreak.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Health Information Management,Health Informatics,Computer Science Applications,Medicine (miscellaneous)
Reference71 articles.
1. Morse, Stephen S. Factors in the emergence of infectious diseases. In Plagues and Politics, 8–26 (Springer; 2001).
2. Stoddard, S. T. et al. The role of human movement in the transmission of vector-borne pathogens. PLoS Negl. Tropical Dis. 3, e481 (2009).
3. Resolution of the Executive Board of the WHO. Communicable diseases prevention and control: new, emerging, and re-emerging infectious diseases (Resolution of the Executive Board of the WHO; 1995).
4. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report - 130. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200529-covid-19-sitrep-130.pdf, 2020. Accessed 30 May 2020.
5. Andrews, J. R. & Basu, S. Transmission dynamics and control of cholera in Haiti: an epidemic model. Lancet 377, 1248–1255 (2011).
Cited by
30 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献