Paris targets within reach by aligning, broadening and strengthening net-zero pledges

Author:

Dafnomilis IoannisORCID,den Elzen MichelORCID,van Vuuren DetlefORCID

Abstract

AbstractMany countries have recently announced the ambition to reach net-zero emissions targets. Here we explore the climate and energy transition impacts of the following strategies using the IMAGE integrated assessment model: 1) implementing the pledged 2030 targets and net-zero targets, 2) aligning the 2030 emission targets with the net-zero targets, 3) broadening the coalition of net-zero countries, and 4) strengthening the net-zero pledges by bringing them forward in time. The results illustrate that each step could accelerate the low-carbon transition by building on existing elements in international climate policy. Our study shows that the gap between a continuation of current emission trends and a Paris-aligned 1.5 °C target can be reduced by about 90% by 2100. This provides a pathway to bring the Paris Agreement climate goals within reach.

Funder

EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

General Earth and Planetary Sciences,General Environmental Science

Reference47 articles.

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2. UNFCCC. Communication of Long-term Strategies | UNFCCC. https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/long-term-strategies (UNFCCC, 2022).

3. UNFCCC. Nationally Determined Contributions Registry | UNFCCC. https://unfccc.int/NDCREG (UNFCCC, 2022).

4. Den Elzen, M. G. J. et al. Updated nationally determined contributions collectively raise ambition levels but need strengthening further to keep Paris goals within reach. Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Chang. 27, 1–29 (2022).

5. Höhne, N. et al. Wave of net zero emission targets opens window to meeting the Paris Agreement. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11, 820–822 (2021).

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