Global patterns of sea surface climate connectivity for marine species

Abstract

AbstractA potential strategy for marine species to cope with warming oceans is to track areas with optimal thermal conditions and shift their spatial distributions. However, the ability of species to successfully reach these areas in the future depends on the length of the paths and their exposure to extreme climatic conditions. Here, we use model predictions of sea surface temperature changes to explore climate connectivity and potential trajectories of marine species to reach their optimal surface thermal analogs by the end of the century. We find that longer trajectories may be required for marine species of the northern than the southern oceans and that the former may be more exposed to extreme conditions than the latter. At key biodiversity hotspots, most future surface thermal analogs may be located in very remote areas, posing a significant challenge for local species to reach them. The new marine connectivity approach presented here could be used to inform future conservation policies.