Dynamic bivariate hazard forecasting of hurricanes for improved disaster preparedness

Abstract

AbstractHurricanes associated with strong winds and heavy rainfall, significantly impact lives and property globally. Traditional approaches focusing only on wind speed lack a comprehensive assessment of potential impacts. Here, we present an innovative method for generating real-time dynamic bivariate hazard assessments for hurricanes, with a specific focus on wind and rainfall, offering a holistic perspective on probable impact. Demonstrated on four hurricanes, this method computes the probabilistic wind and rainfall hazard values at different lead days. These are categorized and presented as bivariate hazard maps to facilitate straightforward interpretation and efficient communication. These maps provide insights into the combined hazard and highlight the individual contributions of wind and rainfall across different lead times, empowering stakeholders to strategize preparedness and precautionary measures. This method provides a novel generic approach for communicating forecast through dynamic bivariate hazard maps, applicable to a range of extreme events such as floods, wildfires, and droughts.