Extreme heat and drought typical of an end-of-century climate could occur over Europe soon and repeatedly
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Published:2023-11-30
Issue:1
Volume:4
Page:
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ISSN:2662-4435
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Container-title:Communications Earth & Environment
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Commun Earth Environ
Author:
Suarez-Gutierrez LauraORCID, Müller Wolfgang A., Marotzke JochemORCID
Abstract
AbstractExtreme heat and drought typical of an end-of-century climate could soon occur over Europe, and repeatedly. Despite the European climate being potentially prone to multi-year successive extremes due to the influence of the North Atlantic variability, it remains unclear how the likelihood of successive extremes changes under warming, how early they could reach end-of-century levels, and how this is affected by internal climate variability. Using the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble, we find that even under moderate warming, end-of-century heat and drought levels virtually impossible 20 years ago reach 1-in-10 likelihoods as early as the 2030s. By 2050–2074, two successive years of single or compound end-of-century extremes, unprecedented to date, exceed 1-in-10 likelihoods; while Europe-wide 5-year megadroughts become plausible. Whole decades of end-of-century heat stress could start by 2040, by 2020 for drought, and with a warm North Atlantic, end-of-century decades starting as early as 2030 become twice as likely.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences,General Environmental Science
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