Abstract
AbstractHeatwaves and dry spells are major climate hazards with far-reaching implications for health, economy, agriculture, and ecosystems. The frequency of compound hot and dry summers in Europe has risen in recent years. Here we present an examination of past extreme summers and compare them to future climate conditions. We use reanalysis data (2001–2022) and model data at three global warming levels: +1.2 °C, +2 °C, and +3 °C for nine selected sub-regions. Key findings indicate a significant increase in the frequency of most extreme past occurrences under 2 °C and 3 °C warming scenarios. For specific summers, the occurrence probability rises by up to 5–6 times from 2 °C to 3 °C. Moreover, our analysis reveals a notable northward shift in the climatology of hot and dry summers under 3 °C warming. The hot and dry climate observed in Eastern Europe under current conditions is anticipated to extend into substantial parts of the Baltic coast, Finland, and Scandinavia.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Reference70 articles.
1. Zscheischler, J. et al. Future climate risk from compound events. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 469–477 (2018).
2. Masson-Delmotte, V. et al. Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. In Proc. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Vol. 2 (IPCC, 2021).
3. Rousi, E. et al. The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 23, 1699–1718 (2023).
4. Sedlmeier, K., Feldmann, H. & Schädler, G. Compound summer temperature and precipitation extremes over central Europe. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 131, 1493–1501 (2018).
5. Robine, J.-M., Cheung, S. L., Le Roy, S., Van Oyen, H. & Herrmann, F. R. Report on excess mortality in Europe during summer 2003. EU Community Action Program. Public Health Grant Agreem. 2005114, 28 (2007).