Precise control balances epidemic mitigation and economic growth

Abstract

AbstractThe outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in 2019 has profoundly affected public health and the global economy. Policymakers face the challenge of evolving virus mutations and one key measure involves the use of Health Code to classify the public and enforce quarantine policies. Despite widespread adoption, its effectiveness in mitigating the epidemic is not well understood. Here, we proposed an infection component model to assess the Health Code’s effectiveness. We found that “Precise control” using Health Code can strike a balance between economic growth and public health, reducing 97% of deaths and improving 1% of GDP compared to “No control” or city shutdown policies. Moreover, its medical costs are only 43% of the latter. However, its effectiveness diminishes if the basic reproductive number ($${R}_{0}$$ R 0 ) exceeds 16.5, indicating the end of this epidemic with “Precise control”. These findings have important implications for policymakers in developing effective strategies to combat the pandemic.