Temporal lineage replacements and dominance of imported variants of concern during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya

Abstract

Abstract Background Kenya’s COVID-19 epidemic was seeded early in March 2020 and did not peak until early August 2020 (wave 1), late-November 2020 (wave 2), mid-April 2021 (wave 3), late August 2021 (wave 4), and mid-January 2022 (wave 5). Methods Here, we present SARS-CoV-2 lineages associated with the five waves through analysis of 1034 genomes, which included 237 non-variants of concern and 797 variants of concern (VOC) that had increased transmissibility, disease severity or vaccine resistance. Results In total 40 lineages were identified. The early European lineages (B.1 and B.1.1) were the first to be seeded. The B.1 lineage continued to expand and remained dominant, accounting for 60% (72/120) and 57% (45/79) in waves 1 and 2 respectively. Waves three, four and five respectively were dominated by VOCs that were distributed as follows: Alpha 58.5% (166/285), Delta 92.4% (327/354), Omicron 95.4% (188/197) and Beta at 4.2% (12/284) during wave 3 and 0.3% (1/354) during wave 4. Phylogenetic analysis suggests multiple introductions of variants from outside Kenya, more so during the first, third, fourth and fifth waves, as well as subsequent lineage diversification. Conclusions The data highlights the importance of genome surveillance in determining circulating variants to aid interpretation of phenotypes such as transmissibility, virulence and/or resistance to therapeutics/vaccines.