Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change

Published:2023-02-09 Issue:4 Volume:7 Page:484-501
ISSN:2397-3374
Container-title:Nature Human Behaviour
language:en
Short-container-title:Nat Hum Behav

Author:

,Grossmann Igor^ORCID,Rotella Amanda,Hutcherson Cendri A.^ORCID,Sharpinskyi Konstantyn,Varnum Michael E. W.^ORCID,Achter Sebastian^ORCID,Dhami Mandeep K.,Guo Xinqi Evie^ORCID,Kara-Yakoubian Mane,Mandel David R.,Raes Louis^ORCID,Tay Louis^ORCID,Vie Aymeric,Wagner Lisa^ORCID,Adamkovic Matus,Arami Arash,Arriaga Patrícia^ORCID,Bandara Kasun^ORCID,Baník Gabriel^ORCID,Bartoš František^ORCID,Baskin Ernest^ORCID,Bergmeir Christoph,Białek Michał^ORCID,Børsting Caroline K.^ORCID,Browne Dillon T.,Caruso Eugene M.^ORCID,Chen Rong^ORCID,Chie Bin-Tzong,Chopik William J.^ORCID,Collins Robert N.,Cong Chin Wen^ORCID,Conway Lucian G.,Davis Matthew^ORCID,Day Martin V.^ORCID,Dhaliwal Nathan A.,Durham Justin D.,Dziekan Martyna,Elbaek Christian T.^ORCID,Shuman Eric,Fabrykant Marharyta,Firat Mustafa^ORCID,Fong Geoffrey T.,Frimer Jeremy A.^ORCID,Gallegos Jonathan M.,Goldberg Simon B.^ORCID,Gollwitzer Anton^ORCID,Goyal Julia,Graf-Vlachy Lorenz^ORCID,Gronlund Scott D.^ORCID,Hafenbrädl Sebastian^ORCID,Hartanto Andree,Hirshberg Matthew J.^ORCID,Hornsey Matthew J.,Howe Piers D. L.^ORCID,Izadi Anoosha^ORCID,Jaeger Bastian^ORCID,Kačmár Pavol^ORCID,Kim Yeun Joon,Krenzler Ruslan,Lannin Daniel G.^ORCID,Lin Hung-Wen,Lou Nigel Mantou^ORCID,Lua Verity Y. Q.,Lukaszewski Aaron W.,Ly Albert L.,Madan Christopher R.^ORCID,Maier Maximilian,Majeed Nadyanna M.,March David S.,Marsh Abigail A.^ORCID,Misiak Michal^ORCID,Myrseth Kristian Ove R.^ORCID,Napan Jaime M.,Nicholas Jonathan^ORCID,Nikolopoulos Konstantinos,O Jiaqing,Otterbring Tobias^ORCID,Paruzel-Czachura Mariola^ORCID,Pauer Shiva,Protzko John^ORCID,Raffaelli Quentin,Ropovik Ivan^ORCID,Ross Robert M.^ORCID,Roth Yefim,Røysamb Espen^ORCID,Schnabel Landon,Schütz Astrid,Seifert Matthias^ORCID,Sevincer A. T.^ORCID,Sherman Garrick T.^ORCID,Simonsson Otto^ORCID,Sung Ming-Chien,Tai Chung-Ching,Talhelm Thomas^ORCID,Teachman Bethany A.,Tetlock Philip E.,Thomakos Dimitrios^ORCID,Tse Dwight C. K.,Twardus Oliver J.,Tybur Joshua M.,Ungar Lyle^ORCID,Vandermeulen Daan^ORCID,Vaughan Williams Leighton,Vosgerichian Hrag A.,Wang Qi^ORCID,Wang Ke^ORCID,Whiting Mark E.^ORCID,Wollbrant Conny E.^ORCID,Yang Tao^ORCID,Yogeeswaran Kumar^ORCID,Yoon Sangsuk^ORCID,Alves Ventura R.^ORCID,Andrews-Hanna Jessica R.,Bloom Paul A.,Boyles Anthony^ORCID,Charis Loo,Choi Mingyeong,Darling-Hammond Sean,Ferguson Z. E.,Kaiser Cheryl R.,Karg Simon T.,Ortega Alberto López^ORCID,Mahoney Lori,Marsh Melvin S.^ORCID,Martinie Marcellin F. R. C.,Michaels Eli K.,Millroth Philip^ORCID,Naqvi Jeanean B.,Ng Weiting,Rutledge Robb B.^ORCID,Slattery Peter,Smiley Adam H.^ORCID,Strijbis Oliver^ORCID,Sznycer Daniel,Tsukayama Eli,van Loon Austin,Voelkel Jan G.^ORCID,Wienk Margaux N. A.,Wilkening Tom

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

Behavioral Neuroscience,Experimental and Cognitive Psychology,Social Psychology

Link

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01517-1.pdf

Reference64 articles.

1. Hutcherson, C. et al. On the accuracy, media representation, and public perception of psychological scientists’ judgments of societal change. Preprint at https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/g8f9s (2023).

2. Collins, H. & Evans, R. Rethinking Expertise (Univ. of Chicago Press, 2009).

3. Fama, E. F. Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. J. Finance 25, 383–417 (1970).

4. Tetlock, P. E. Expert Political Judgement: How Good Is It? (Princeton University Press, 2017).

5. Hofman, J. M. et al. Integrating explanation and prediction in computational social science. Nature 595, 181–188 (2021).

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