Will Russian resources “drive” electric vehicles? Part 1

Abstract

Introduction (problem statement and relevance). In recent years, electric vehicles sharply gained extra attention as an alternative to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The main driving forces for the transition to electric vehicles are said to be environmental protection and decreasing reserves of hydrocarbon fuels. With this motivation in mind, the parties to the Paris Agreement (2016) formed the strategic goals, among which was complete decarbonization of energy and transport by 2050, also through replacing ICEs with electric propulsion. In order to reach such an ambitious target while considering the size of the global and Russian vehicle fleets, serious financial, technological, material and social resources are necessary. The article attempts to assess the current level of Russia’s raw material base required for motor vehicles decarbonization, and the degree of its readiness to reach the Paris Agreement goals. The article consists of two parts. The first part considers the Russian automotive industry energy security during its transition to electric driving, while the second part studies the availability of the most problematic units and materials to implement such a solution.The purpose of the study is to analyze the Russian raw material base situation from the perspective of its readiness for complete or step-by-step replacement of ICE powertrains with electric drives, including hydrogen ones.Methodology and research methods. Analysis of information about production and usage of the main raw material resources required for manufacturing and operating electric vehicles in Russia.Scientific novelty and results. There was no analysis of Russia’s raw material base from the perspective of its readiness for complete or step-by-step replacement of ICEs with electric propulsion carried out earlier. The resources in the form of necessary materials and electric energy that are available in Russia are insufficient for full-scale replacement of the existing ICE vehicle fleet with electric vehicles, both battery and hydrogen powered.Practical significance. The revealed unpreparedness of Russia’s raw material base for replacement of ICE vehicles with electric vehicles makes it possible to exclude unjustified optimism regarding this solution, to evaluate carefully the prospects and fields of application of electric vehicles and to focus on finding more realistic ways to improve vehicle environmental characteristics and economic efficiency.