Motorization and Under-Reported Road Accidents: Spatial Evidence from Pakistan

Abstract

Considering the importance of road safety, as discussed in the agenda of World Health Organization-2030; this study folds motorization and under-reporting of road accidents in Punjab, Pakistan. The objectives of the study are selected as 1) identifying the motorization in Punjab; 2) synthesizing the vehicles dominance by preparing spatial maps on the basis of their types; 3) identifying the evidence of under-reporting of road accidents. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of different vehicles were estimated, and spatial maps were generated using ArcGIS to demonstrate the spatial distribution of vehicles (CAGR). Results indicated the potential impact of geographical locations on the CAGR of vehicles. The CAGR of registered vehicles was recorded as: 2.73% to 9.93% for Cars; 12.63% to 18.94% for Motorcycles; 9.35% to 24.1% for Rickshaws; 0.74% to 7.29% for Trucks and 5.25% to 14.42% for Vans. On the other hand, the CAGR of road length varied from 0.35% to 12.03% that illustrated the alarming situation of increased motorization. Sluggish infrastructural development and the huge recorded difference in CAGR can be categorized as the possible causes of immense road accidents. By comparing reported road accidents with Punjab Emergency Service (PES) estimations; the average rate of annual under-reported road accidents was found as 62.6% that also showed variations, according to different administrative regions of the Punjab province. Study findings suggests that the development of effective transportation policy, focusing road safety may help Pakistan to curtail road accidents and induce free-flow of traffic.