Prosperity as a Cause of Death

Abstract

The general death rate rises during business booms and falls during depressions. The causes of death involved in this variation range from infectious diseases through accidents to heart disease, cancer, and cirrhosis of the liver, and include the great majority of all causes of death. Less than 2 percent of the death rate-that for suicide and homicide-varies directly with unemployment. In the older historical data, deterioration of housing and rise of alcohol consumption on the boom may account for part of this variation. In twentieth-century cycles, the role of social stress is probably predominant. Overwork and fragmentation of community through migration are two important sources of stress which rise with the boom, and they are demonstrably related to the causes of death which show this variation.