Estimating Degree Attainment Rates of Freshmen: A Campus Perspective

Abstract

While Chapman University's six-year graduation rate has been increasing steadily in the last few years, the institution continues to seek better ways to retain its students. Accordingly, our attention has focused on trying to identify freshman students who are more likely to be retained and those who are likely to depart college prior to degree completion. Using the models developed by the Higher Education Research Institute (HERI), Chapman University's four- and six-year estimated degree completion rates were computed and compared to the actual rates. The four- and six-year estimated and actual degree completion rates differed by only 0.6 and 6.3 percentage points, respectively. The models presented by Astin and Oseguera (2002)1allow us to explore a variety of student characteristics (i.e., gender, race/ethnicity, in- and out-of-state status, admit status, and GPA) when examining estimated and actual degree completion rates and provide us with an opportunity to take a proactive approach to student retention on our campus.