Terrorism Threat in Doctrine Formulating of Military Campaign Scenario to Achieve National Security

Abstract

Based on the estimation methodology on the potential of the war against terrorism on the transformation of doctrine, the conclusions based on the predictive analysis are: (1) The potential for the war against terrorism has a very strong relevance to the prediction of changes in military campaign doctrine in the long term by producing new war strategies both in terms of ends-means-ways as a result of High Impact Low Probability, (2) Through predictive analysis with extrapolation model, it is found that threats, strategic environment and tradition or history are variables that are expected to remain unchanged, especially in the short term in influencing the preparation of Military Campaign Doctrine, (3) The Projection Model determines if Threat is the variable that changes the most so that it will affect changes in the Military Campaign Doctrine in the short to medium term, (4) Looking for the best solution in realizing the best Military Campaign Doctrine. This can be followed by designing a simulation of the New War Strategy as a result of forecasting the Military Campaign Doctrine.